[넥스트포스트=이종균 기자] The Nigerian government has formalized plans to list state oil company NNPC on the stock exchange. But none of the approval procedures required for a listing have begun yet.

President Bola Tinubu announced on the 6th at the presidential villa in Abuja, while receiving the board of the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX Group), that NNPC would be reformed and listed on the capital market. The meeting was attended by NGX Group Chairman Umaru Kwairanga and Group CEO Temi Popoola. Tinubu said the goal was to eventually list the company in its entirety, and also spoke of ambitions to make NNPC as efficient as Saudi Arabia's Aramco.
Behind the announcement lies Nigeria's booming stock market. NGX's market capitalization has grown more than fivefold in three years, from 28.7 trillion naira (about $62 billion) in the first half of 2023 — before the naira float — to 158.1 trillion naira (about $116 billion) as of the 5th. The government has repeatedly stated its intention to use this market boom as a springboard toward its goal of a $1 trillion economy, leveraging the country's population and human capital.

NNPC reform is already underway. On February 13th, Tinubu signed an executive order directing the 30% management fee NNPC had been collecting on profit oil and gas, along with a 30% frontier exploration levy — together 60% of production-sharing proceeds — straight into the Federation Account. Oil production is also recovering. Output that averaged 1.63 million barrels per day in 2025 rose to 1.626 million bpd in the first half of this year and reached 1.735 million bpd in June. The rig count climbed from 8 in 2021 to 69 as of October last year, with 40 of those actually drilling. NNPC Group CEO Bayo Ojulari unveiled a roadmap last July targeting a listing by 2028.

The problem is procedure. A listing would require approval from the National Economic Council (NEC), selection of a transaction adviser, an audited 2025 financial statement, registration with Nigeria's Securities and Exchange Commission, and a formal application to NGX. None of these steps has been confirmed so far. Nigeria's Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) contains no separate provision addressing a listing. Analysts say Tinubu's remarks amount to a statement of political intent rather than a legally binding decision.

The gap becomes clearer when compared with other African state oil companies' listing attempts. Angola's state oil firm Sonangol has been pursuing an IPO of up to 30% of its shares, but the target was pushed back to 2027 after the company was dropped from this year's privatization list. Sonangol's 2025 revenue is projected to fall 13% to $9.1 billion amid lower crude prices, with net income expected around $750 million. Compared with Saudi Aramco — which listed 1.5% of its shares in 2019 in the world's largest IPO — or Brazil's Petrobras and Colombia's Ecopetrol, both partially privatized and publicly traded for decades, Nigeria and Angola remain at a preparatory stage.

Ultimately, realizing the vision of listing all of NNPC would require clearing procedures far more complex than Aramco's. Observers say NEC approval, greater accounting transparency, and governance reforms investors can trust must come first. NGX Group said it briefed the president on a roadmap for a long-term capital formation program built on the market's recovery. Whether the National Economic Council actually grants approval will be the next test of the plan.

넥스트포스트 이종균 기자 jay@nextpost.co.kr